N. Korea warns of nuclear war

[franzoir]

North Korea is like a neglected child. They are in desperate need of financial aid but cannot acquire it due to sanctions. Like any neglected child, they start to seek attention. They are just using nuclear weapons as a way to gain attention from the world and a bargaining chip to lower sanctions and increase financial aid.

In term of nuclear war risk assessment, it is true that the greatest threat comes from North Korea, but it doesnt mean anything because the likelihood is very low.

When Collin Powell was asked about whether N.Korea poses a threat. He said no and describes them as the "toughest negotiators". People who negotiate are looking for way out, not seeking destruction.

Any nation will not consider a nuclear stike unless the head of state is mad. Its just not worth it.

The real danger comes from terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons, since they dont give a flying monkey whether the world burns.

 

[noob]

QUOTE (franzoir @ Aug 15 2009, 05:42 PM) North Korea is like a neglected child. They are in desperate need of financial aid but cannot acquire it due to sanctions. Like any neglected child, they start to seek attention. They are just using nuclear weapons as a way to gain attention from the world and a bargaining chip to lower sanctions and increase financial aid.

In term of nuclear war risk assessment, it is true that the greatest threat comes from North Korea, but it doesnt mean anything because the likelihood is very low.

When Collin Powell was asked about whether N.Korea poses a threat. He said no and describes them as the "toughest negotiators". People who negotiate are looking for way out, not seeking destruction.

Any nation will not consider a nuclear stike unless the head of state is mad. Its just not worth it.

The real danger comes from terrorists acquiring nuclear weapons, since they dont give a flying monkey whether the world burns.
"If I go down, I'll take you all down with me." Wow that's quite strong. I love that quote. Anyways yeah, that quote basically sums up North Korea's mentality. If they're going down, they'll take us down with them.

 

[Gustav1976]

That "if I go down, I'll take you down with me" used to known as something else back during the 80's

I think it was M.A.P (Mutual Anhilation Pact) or something. It was between America and Russia at the time and basically stated that "if you launch nuclear missiles at us our automatic reaction is launch all our back at you".
It's always been my understanding that ownership of a big weapon of any sort has never really been much of a deterent as any country that might attack will just try and get an even bigger weapon.
Hopefully N.Korea will do the sensible thing and negotiate as much as humanly possible before thinking of using force to solve problems.
Just out of curiosity what ever happend to the spaient bit of being Homo sapiens?

 

[Koutakun]

Nah that was MAD (mutually assured destruction) which was more of an idea than a pact, the idea was that if America attacked the good old USSR which would then retaliate, then both countries would be destroyed. This concept doesn't apply to North Korea as it would be unable to damage the US let alone destroy it. American nuclear weapons will however act as a deterent, however should North Korea threaten another country, probably South Korea or Japan by threatening to fire it's nukes at them then that would make the US even more reluctant to use nuclear weapons putting North Korea in a strong position. It is unlikely though that they will ever indeed use their nukes.

 

[Hiroyuki]

The MAD idea was expressed best in the classic film Dr Strangelove I think. In it an American officer goes nuts and orders a nuclear strike on the USSR on the grounds that a pre-emptive strike is in the US's interests even if millions of people die in the meantime. It then turns out that the USSR has an ultimate weapon which will be automatically triggered if they are attacked and will wipe out all life on Earth. Dr. Strangelove points out that such a weapon is useless unless everyone knows about it in advance, because its only possible purpose is to act as a deterrent — if it actually gets used, everyone dies!

The Russian envoy says they had meant to tell the world about it but had not got round to it yet because they were waiting for some special occasion (anniversary of Lenin's death or something). The result is the world is destroyed.

So Mutally Assured Distruction may not stop WW3 after all, but it sure as anything will prevent WW4 ever happening!

 

[Koutakun]

It still however doesn't apply to North Korea as it simply at the moment doesn't pose a threat to the US. I don't know if I'll ever watch Dr Strangelove, I'm a sucker for a happy ending and sad ones leave me broken and empty inside.

 

[Dalriada]

QUOTE (Koutakun @ Aug 17 2009, 05:31 PM) It still however doesn't apply to North Korea as it simply at the moment doesn't pose a threat to the US. I don't know if I'll ever watch Dr Strangelove, I'm a sucker for a happy ending and sad ones leave me broken and empty inside.
It poses a threat to Japan and South Korea, two strong allies of the USA.

And for those who don't care about foreigners : it poses a thread to the american influence in East Asia.

Besides, MAD is not the only nuclear doctrin. There's also the asymetrical response, which was sum up nicely by De Gaulle : The Russians may be able to kill 800 millions Frenchmen, if there was 800 millions Frenchmen, but they'll think twice about it because they know we can kill 80 millions Russians.

PS : Nuclear-wise, Pakistan is much more worrying than North Korea in my opinion, because N.K. acts rather like a rational actor. Let's just hope they don't decide to sell the technologies and the material to everyone.

 

[Koutakun]

That is why I suggested that North Korea will hold Japan or the South hostage under their nuclear weapons in order to improve their bargaining position. Also when I said that North Korea did not pose a threat to the US or the UK I simply meant that they are unable to directly to launch a direct attack on the US or where I live in the UK, I however am not concerned about South Korea or Japan because I believe it would be impossible for North Korea to launch an attack against either country.

 

[Dalriada]

QUOTE (Koutakun @ Aug 18 2009, 06:02 AM) I however am not concerned about South Korea or Japan because I believe it would be impossible for North Korea to launch an attack against either country.
Can I ask why ?
Some wars have been waged with sillier reasons.


Besides, you miss one big possibility : conventional war against South Korea, and the USA would be unable to retaliate. Typically "Ok we've launched a war, but we haven't used our atomics. Try to stop us and we'll use them".
Of course, the most reasonable way would be to avoid the war from the start, but we all know it's not always what's happen in the real world, or we wouldn't have any war at all.

 

[Koutakun]

I believe that the idea of American nuclear intervention would be too large a deterant to North Korea, however unlikely it is I doubt that the North Koreans would want to risk it and can I remind you that this thread is about the threat of North Korean nuclear war not of conventional war however we could expand this topic to include it.

 

[hkdmz]

QUOTE (Koutakun @ Aug 18 2009, 09:22 AM) I believe that the idea of American nuclear intervention would be too large a deterant to North Korea, however unlikely it is I doubt that the North Koreans would want to risk it and can I remind you that this thread is about the threat of North Korean nuclear war not of conventional war however we could expand this topic to include it.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure North Korea is just seeking attention like a child who hasn't been given what they want. To think that they would want to start a nuclear with the US is just preposterous because they know the US has more warheads than them (I think).

 

[Hiroyuki]

QUOTE (Koutakun @ Aug 17 2009, 11:31 PM)I don't know if I'll ever watch Dr Strangelove, I'm a sucker for a happy ending and sad ones leave me broken and empty inside.
Don't let that stop you, Dr Strangelove is a black comedy so you shouldn't worry about the ending, which you only see as mushroom clouds appearing to the crooning music of Vera Lynn's "We'll Meet Again". It's rated as one of the great movie classics.

 

[Koutakun]

I think I will now but first I have to catch up on a lot of anime, then I have to watch all the versions of Blade Runner (got the super special awesome blu ray edition with about 4 different versions of the same movie) I don't know why I'm watching them I just have to.